Historic Cocaine Boom Has Lethal Consequences

Cocaine is staging a record-breaking global comeback. NPR reports that after years of decline, the world is now experiencing a historic boom in cocaine supply—one that researchers say has cut prices and fueled thousands of additional overdose deaths in the US. The United Nations Office of Drugs and Crime recently found that "Global cocaine production has hit an all-time high once again, accompanied by significant increases in cocaine seizures, cocaine users and—most tragically—cocaine-related deaths in many countries." The surge is showing up in places like suburban Los Angeles, where a routine traffic stop in Upland uncovered 66 pounds of cocaine hidden in a car—about 30 kilograms, which is a massive haul typically linked to large-scale trafficking.

Researchers Xinming Du, Benjamin Hansen, Shan Zhang, and Eric Zou trace the surge to policy changes beginning around 2015. Colombia ended its US-backed aerial fumigation campaign targeting coca crops over health concerns, then signed a peace deal with the guerrilla group FARC in 2016. When FARC demobilized, a power vacuum opened in coca-growing regions, and rival armed groups moved in. The economists wrote, "These new traffickers actively encouraged local farmers to plant more coca as they consolidated control." A crop-substitution program meant to pay farmers to uproot coca backfired when growers planted more to qualify for aid. By 2022, Colombia's coca cultivation and potential cocaine output were more than triple 2015 levels.

The researchers estimate that without Colombia's post-2015 cocaine surge, the US would see roughly 1,500 fewer overdose deaths each year. Hansen says that even when restricting the data to deaths involving only cocaine, the relationship still holds, suggesting this isn't merely a fentanyl spillover effect. Policymakers are paying attention: The surge has contributed to tensions between the US and Colombia, and earlier this month President Trump and Colombian President Gustavo Petro met, with fighting the cocaine trade high on the agenda. One implication of the research, Hansen argues, is that supply-side crackdowns can matter at the source. "They're going to respond to the bottom line," he says of traffickers. "And if you make it a lot harder to produce things, well, they're gonna probably scale back production." Read the full piece at NPR.