How Bad Is the US Housing Crisis? Define 'Shortage'

Housing in the US is either mildly tight or wildly scarce, depending on who's being asked, with the Washington Post laying out just how wide the gap is. Moody's pegs the shortfall at about 2 million homes, while Goldman Sachs and Freddie Mac land at around 3 million to 4 million. Zillow, Brookings, and McKinsey, meanwhile, climb even higher, from 4 million to 8 million. Congressional Republicans, using a "what if there were no zoning or permitting limits" approach, say the true deficit is closer to 20 million.

One housing analyst, looking at long-term construction spending, argues the country would have 40 million more homes if we'd kept to 1990 per capita spending levels. The divergence comes down to what "shortage" means: Is it one home available for every household (plus normal vacancies), or enough homes for every doubled-up adult who'd move out if prices fell?

Some economists say the real problem is not an overall lack of units, but a lack of affordable ones—and suggest boosting wages or subsidies rather than just building more. Vanguard agrees, at least in terms of Los Angeles' housing issues specifically, noting that the city's shortage is not the product of physical limits or technical incapacity"; instead, housing advocates say, it's due to "decades of political hesitation embedded into law, bureaucracy, and culture." President Trump, for his part, doesn't seem to agree that housing prices are too high.