US Turkey Population Hits a 40-Year Low

Larry Doll raises chickens, turkeys, and ducks, on a small farm west of Detroit, and was fortunate this Thanksgiving season: He had no cases of bird flu, despite an ongoing outbreak that killed more than 2 million US turkeys in the last three months alone. He also avoided avian metapneumovirus, which causes turkeys to lay fewer eggs, reports the AP. "I try to keep the operation as clean as possible, and not bringing other animals in from other farms helps mitigate that risk as well," said Doll. But he still saw the impact as those diseases shrank the US turkey flock to a 40-year low this year. The hatchery where he gets his chicks had fewer available. He plans to order another 100 soon, though they won't arrive until July. "If you don't get your order in early, you're not going to get it," he said.

The USDA says the shrinking population is expected to cause wholesale turkey prices to rise 44% this year. Despite the increase, many stores are offering discounted or even free turkeys to soften the potential blow to Thanksgiving budgets. And the ingredients to prepare the rest of the feast may be more expensive. Tariffs on imported steel, for example, have increased prices for canned goods. As of Nov. 17, a basket of 11 Thanksgiving staples—including a 10-pound frozen turkey, 10 Russet potatoes, a box of stuffing, and cans of corn, green beans, and cranberry sauce—cost $58.81, or 4.1% more than last year, according to market research company Datasembly. Other estimates vary, with some even predicting falling prices.

In the second week of November, frozen 8-16 pound hens were averaging $1.77 per pound, up 81% from the same period last year, according to Mark Jordan, executive director of Leap Market Analytics. Another reason for turkey's higher wholesale prices has been an increase in consumer demand as other meats have gotten more expensive, Jordan said. Beef prices were up 14% in September compared to last year. "For a big chunk of the population, they look at steak cuts and say, 'I can't or I don't want to pay $30 a pound,'" Jordan said.