Ford CEO Jim Farley is bracing for a major slide in US electric vehicle sales after a key federal tax credit expires this week. Farley said Tuesday that he wouldn't be surprised to see EVs' share of the auto market drop from a record 10-12% this month to just 5% once the $7,500 federal incentive ends, CNBC reports. "It's going to be a vibrant industry, but it's going to be smaller, way smaller than we thought," Farley told attendees at a Ford event in Detroit, citing the policy change and the expected rollback of tailpipe emission rules as primary factors.
Farley noted that consumers appear more comfortable with hybrids than fully electric cars at the moment, and pointed out that Ford's own EV offerings, like the F-150 Lightning and Mustang Mach-E, are often seen as too expensive—some models cost more $90,000. While the soon-to-expire tax break fueled a surge in EV purchases this year, that momentum may not last. Industry tracker Cox Automotive expects third-quarter EV sales to hit a record 410,000 units, up 21% from last year, but predicts much of this demand was accelerated by shoppers trying to beat the incentive deadline.
"Customers are pesky," Farley said. "They surprise you. They definitely surprised us. Customers are not interested in the $75,000 electric vehicle." Sam Abuelsamid at auto communications agency Telemetry says EV sales will probably halve, but a rebound is likely after the launch of affordable models like the Nissan Leaf and the Chevrolet Bolt, the Detroit News reports. "They're going to be in that $30,000-ish, mid-$30,000 price range," Abuelsamid says. "As we get those more affordable EV models that still have good, strong range, I think a lot of EV intenders will be taking a hard look at those vehicles."
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