Next 10 Days May Be Crucial for Ukraine's Fate

We may now be closer to a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia—but "the road to any settlement seems long," reports the Washington Post, noting that while European leaders seem to have convinced President Trump that granting Russia a chunk of Ukrainian territory is not immediately necessary, Moscow is uneasy with the direction of talks, especially around security guarantees for Ukraine.

• Potential meeting: Trump said he was trying to arrange a one-on-one meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the next couple of weeks, to be followed by a trilateral meeting involving Trump, per NBC News. But Russian officials said only that they had agreed to "explore the possibility" of a meeting, per the Post.
• Fast timeline: Zelensky on Tuesday suggested that some of the thorniest issues could be worked out in 10 days. "Security guarantees will probably be 'unpacked' by our partners, and more and more details will emerge," he said, per Reuters. "All of this will somehow be formalized on paper within the next week to 10 days." A meeting with Putin would presumably follow.

• Security guarantees: Trump said the US would be "involved" in keeping peace in Ukraine once a deal is reached, though he has ruled out the idea of sending ground troops. "We will give them very good protection and very good security," he said, per the New York Times. Moscow had said Monday that it would not accept any peacekeeping efforts involving NATO members.
• Analysis: CNN's Stephen Collinson suggests Putin will never agree to NATO-like security guarantees for Ukraine after "fighting a war to crush his neighbor's NATO aspirations." He also questions whether Western nations are prepared to fight a war against Russia to save Ukraine from another invasion. Russia, of course, has broken prior pacts not to invade Ukraine, per the Wall Street Journal.
• Land swap: Putin on Friday suggested Ukraine should surrender its eastern Donbas region, including parts remaining under Ukrainian control, which Ukraine's constitution prevents. That would "mean telling thousands of Ukrainians they have must leave home or become Russians," writes Collinson, noting "land swaps create epochal upheaval and seed future feuds—as the Middle East shows."

• Putin's intentions: Some European officials question whether Putin is playing for time or negotiating in good faith, which would mean accepting that he's failed his mission in Ukraine. By proposing terms unacceptable to Ukraine, Russia may be trying to shift "blame for a breakdown in talks to Kyiv," allowing it to continue the war, per the Journal. It has rejected calls for a ceasefire during the talks.
• Kudos to Trump: Even if it all falls apart, Trump deserves credit for trying, writes Collison. "Monday's meetings were the most compelling sign yet that the president really means it when he says he wants to stop the killing in Ukraine," he notes. "He may deserve more credit than he gets for his energy and commitment so far."