Over a 14-month period, 70 people in the US were confirmed to have bird flu. But since early February, the number of new diagnoses stands at zero—leaving experts to question why reports of new human cases have essentially stopped. The AP chalks a lot of it up to seasonality: One CDC expert noted in a call with doctors in April that the peak of H5N1 cases tends to be in fall and early winter; the AP adds that a "patchwork system" that looks for the virus in sewage and wastewater has indicated reduced activity.
Testing has plummeted in California from dozens of people per month to just three in March, one in April, and none so far this month. Politico reported in March that the pace of dairy cows and poultry infections was slowing in the state as well. "The good news is we are lifting quarantines now faster than we're placing them," said California State Veterinarian Dr. Annette Jones. "There were times in December where I wanted to break down in tears, because every night we got 30 new cases."
"Given the fact that the number of animal detections has fallen according to USDA data, it's not surprising that human cases have declined as well," the CDC said in a statement. While the AP notes some are wondering if there are political factors at play—fewer human tests among immigrant farm workers wary of deportation, for instance, or less government funding to study the issue at large. Experts are split on that, though many say that while it's possible some mild infections are now going undetected, severe cases would likely not fly under the radar. (This content was created with the help of AI. Read our AI policy.)
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