Why This Seemingly Meh NFL Prospect Is on the Radar

For NFL teams, the draft is always a gamble. Even players with the best stats can fail to perform, hence the "balancing act of marrying future NFL potential with on-field production," per ESPN. This year, one defensive lineman in particular is front and center in this potential vs. production discussion. Shemar Stewart out of Texas A&M has emerged as a top prospect ahead of Thursday's NFL draft—expected to go as soon as 10th in the first round—despite averaging just 1.5 sacks per season. In contrast, Penn State star edge rusher Abdul Carter, likely to be picked in the top five, had 12 sacks just last year. So why so much hype about Stewart?

Though he counts just 4.5 sacks and 11.5 tackles for loss in 37 games, he has great potential. His average time to first pressure last season was 2.43 seconds, the best in the NCAA's Division I Football Bowl Subdivision. Plus, at 6'5" and 267 pounds, he ran the 40-yard dash in 4.59 seconds at the NFL combine—"better than three running backs, five wide receivers, and all 14 tight ends in attendance who ran," per ESPN—while also logging a 40-inch vertical jump and a 10'11" broad jump. "There are not many people on the planet who can do that," one scout tells ESPN. The measurables put him on par with Myles Garrett, another former Aggie who became the first in NFL history to post 14-plus sacks in four straight years with the Cleveland Browns, per USA Today.

Stewart "is the ultimate example of traits versus production," NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah said on a conference call this week, per NBC News. "He's explosive, he's disruptive. He just hasn't been able to finish, to compile sacks." "If Stewart can put it all together in the NFL, he may be able to rival Abdul Carter for the title of best edge rusher in this class," per USA Today. If he can't, well, that's part of the gamble. But as NBC Sports' Chris Simms sees it, there's little risk in betting on Stewart. He's "one of the safest picks in the draft" with "a superstar future in front of him," he concludes. (Another top-ranked prospect is willing to play offense and defense.)