It's Judgment Day for Michael Steele at RNC

The Republican National Committee will meet tonight to select its chairman—and pretty much no one is betting on the incumbent. Michael Steele is actually sitting in second place in public tallies right now, behind perceived front-runner Reince Priebus, according to Politico. But as the incumbent, Steele is unlikely to draw new votes throughout the many rounds of balloting. One journalist tells NPR there’s an “overwhelming likelihood” that Steele will be ousted.

Priebus—head of the Wisconsin GOP and a former Steele adviser—would likely then remain the favorite, but he’ll have to show momentum throughout the balloting. There’s also an X-factor: Committee rules state that the chair and co-chair must be different genders. There’s only one male co-chair candidate, but if he wins, Missouri GOP chair Ann Wagner and Pfizer lobbyist Maria Cino will suddenly be the only possible chairman choices.